1.19M Children Born in Russia in 2025
The estimate of 1.19 million for 2025 is close to the demographic Alexey Rakhshin's calculation of 1.18 million births, according to The Bell.
Consensus
- The number of children born in Russia in 2025 was estimated at 1.19 million.
- Official demographic data on population, mortality, and birth rates from Rosstat has not been published since 2025.
- The only publicly available demographic indicator is the total fertility rate.
- The estimate is close to the calculation by demographer Alexey Raksha, who estimated 1.18 million births.
- Demographer Salavat Abylkalykov described both estimates as realistic.
- The 2025 figure is the lowest in modern Russian history, surpassing the previous low of 1.21 million in 1999.
- The calculation used data on the number of women as of January 1, 2025, mortality rates from 2023, and fertility rates from Rosstat for 2025.
- The calculation includes Crimea and Sevastopol but excludes Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions.
Points of divergence
- The 1.19 million figure is a new record low in modern Russian history, with the previous low being 1.214 million in 1999. — thebell
- The calculation excludes Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhie, and Kherson regions despite Russia's claim of sovereignty over them. — thebell
- Demographer Alexey Raksha has been labeled an 'agent of foreign influence' by Russian authorities. — thebell
- Salavat Abylkalykov stated that birth rates will continue to decline until the early-to-mid 2030s due to a shrinking pool of potential mothers. — thebell
- The authors of the calculation suggest that lower birth rates than in 2025 may have occurred only during World War II on comparable territory. — thebell
Coverage (3 sources)
- In 2025, 1.19 million children were born in Russia — Дождь (Telegram)
- In 2025, 1.19 million children were born in Russia — Дождь
- In 2025, 1.19 million children were born in Russia, economists calculated. This is the worst result in the country's modern history — The Bell