GDP · Russia · bank (ввп · россия · банк)
A deputy governor of the Central Bank of Russia stated that the current situation on the fuel market will impact the dynamics of Russia's GDP in the second quarter of 2026, though negative GDP values are not expected. The decline in fuel production has already been observed in April-May, and this trend is anticipated to affect economic performance in Q2.
Consensus
- The situation on the fuel market will impact Russia's GDP in Q2 2026
- Negative GDP values are not expected for Q2 2026
- There has been a significant decline in fuel production in April-May 2026
Points of divergence
- The Central Bank's forecast for GDP growth in the first half of 2026 was 0.5%, and it expects a growth rate between 0.5-1.5% for 2026, with subsequent years showing higher growth rates. — interfax
- The Central Bank's governor previously indicated that secondary effects from the fuel market situation could influence decisions on key interest rates. — vesti
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