Analysts have raised inflation and key rate forecasts for Russia.… (прогноз · аналитик · барра)
Analysts have raised inflation and key rate forecasts for Russia. The oil price forecast for taxation purposes this year was lowered to $63/barrel from $70/barrel in the May survey, also reduced for 2027 - to $58/barrel from $60/barrel, and for 2028 - down to $57/barrel from $59/barrel.
Consensus
- Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia increased their inflation forecast for 2026 to 6.2% from 5.3%.
- The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was slightly adjusted downward, with estimates at 0.6% in one source and a minor deterioration noted in another.
- Key interest rate forecasts were increased for 2026 (14.5%), 2027 (12.2%), 2028 (10%), and 2029 (8.6%) compared to previous estimates.
- Oil price forecasts for taxation purposes were reduced: $63/barrel in 2026, $58/barrel in 2027, with further reductions projected for 2028 and 2029.
- Ruble exchange rate forecasts for 2026 remained nearly unchanged at around 78.4 rubles per dollar.
Points of divergence
- The GDP growth forecast for the current year was slightly worsened by 0.1%. — vesti
- The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was revised to 0.6% from 0.7%. — interfax
- The ruble forecast for 2028 and 2029 years were slightly improved to 92.4 and 95.8 rubles per dollar respectively. — vesti
- The ruble forecast for 2028 was reduced to 92.4 from 94.3, and for 2029 to 95.8 from 97.8. — interfax
Coverage (2 sources)
- Analysts Raise Inflation and Key Rate Forecasts for Russia — Вести
- Analysts surveyed by the Russian Central Bank significantly raised inflation forecast for 2026 — Интерфакс