Russia's inflation expectations fall to 13.7% in August
In August, inflation expectations among Russian citizens decreased to 13.7% from 14.7% in July, according to a Central Bank-commissioned survey, while observed inflation also declined to 14.3% from 15.1%. Expectations for inflation over five years continued to rise, reaching 12.4%.
Consensus
- Inflation expectations for the next 12 months among Russian citizens decreased from 14.7% in July to 13.7% in August.
- Observed inflation decreased from 15.1% in July to 14.3% in August.
- Inflation expectations for five years increased to 12.4% in August, up from 11.2% in July.
- The survey was conducted by 'inFOM' on behalf of the Central Bank of Russia between August 4 and 13.
- The survey included at least 2,000 participants from 100 populated areas across 54 regions of Russia.
- Inflation expectations for both groups—those with and without savings—decreased in August compared to July.
- The Central Bank considers inflation expectations a key factor in monetary policy decisions.
Points of divergence
- Inflation expectations in August are at levels seen at the beginning of the year before the fuel crisis. — thebell
- The rise in five-year inflation expectations indicates weak anchoring of inflation expectations, as people doubt the Central Bank's ability to achieve the 4% target. — thebell
- Inflation expectations in August returned to the level of December 2025 – January 2026. — interfax
- The Central Bank's board reduced the key rate to 14% on July 24, citing fuel market issues as a reason for inflation acceleration. — vedomosti
- Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina stated that the current inflation acceleration is temporary and that inflation expectations may decrease as the fuel market stabilizes. — vedomosti
- Inflation expectations for five years rose only among respondents without savings (to 13.9%), while those with savings saw a smaller increase (to 10.2%). — kommersant
- Business inflation expectations increased in August, but at a slower pace than in July. — interfax
- The overall business inflation expectations index rose due to energy and water supply sectors ahead of tariff adjustments in October. — kommersant
- Inflation in Crimea increased by over 8% in August, with gasoline prices rising 2.4 times. — thebell
- The Central Bank raised its forecast for the key rate to 14.5–14.6% for the year. — vedomosti
Coverage (8 sources)
- Population inflation expectations in August fell to 13.7% — Коммерсантъ
- Russians lowered inflation expectations in August — The Bell
- Central Bank states that inflation expectations of Russians have noticeably decreased in August — Вести
- Central Bank: Inflation expectations of Russians fell to 13.7% in August — Коммерсантъ
- Inflation expectations of Russian citizens in August fell to 13.7% — Ведомости
- Inflation expectations of the Russian population in August decreased from 14.7% to 13.7% — Интерфакс
- At the Central Bank of Russia, they explained why inflation dropped to 5.98% in July — Вести
- Central Bank noted technical nature of year-on-year inflation decline in July due to shift in utility indexation — Интерфакс