Analysts have termed this a 'full-scale demographic crisis' in…
Analysts have termed this a 'full-scale demographic crisis' in business. Russian business has entered its first full-scale demographic crisis: since the beginning of 2026, there has been a sharp increase in the number of enterprises closing, linked to real business decisions to exit the market.
Consensus
- Since the beginning of 2026, the number of Russian companies closing each month has increased to 12–15 thousand, which is three times higher than the previous average of 5 thousand per month.
- The number of new companies registered in Russia from January to May 2026 was 62,000, a decrease of nearly 22% compared to the same period in 2025.
- The decline affects almost all industries, with trade, construction, and manufacturing being the most impacted sectors.
- The increase in closures is due to real economic decisions rather than formal or administrative actions.
- The combination of high closure rates and low registration rates indicates a structural crisis in the business environment, not just a registry cleanup.
- Analysts from Sber's Center for Macroeconomic Research have identified this as a 'demographic crisis' in business.
Points of divergence
- The VAT rate in Russia increased from 20% to 22% starting January 1, 2026, and the threshold for reduced tax rates was lowered. — meduza
- The intensification of anti-money laundering laws (115-FZ) starting in mid-2025 led to increased scrutiny of bank operations and faster account freezes, contributing to the crisis. — tg_istories_media
- Economic stagnation, civil sector decline, tax increases, and administrative pressure are driving the crisis. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
Coverage (4 sources)
- In 2026, in Russia, three times more companies close each month than in previous years — Meduza
- «Enterprises have entered a full-scale demographic crisis». Sberbank notes mass extinction of business in Russia — The Moscow Times
- Russian companies have been closing three times more frequently this year, and new ones are appearing less often — Sber report — ЭХО / Новости
- This year Russian companies are closing almost three times more often, and new ones have appeared 22% fewer. Analysts called this... — Важные истории