Russia's Economy Grows Modestly Amid Slowing Consumer Spending
On September 30, it was reported that consumer prices in the Russian Federation rose by 0.12% during the period from September 22 to September 28, following a 0.06% increase the previous week.
Consensus
- Russia's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- Real wages grew by 3.3% in July 2026 compared to July 2025.
- Consumer spending and real disposable incomes showed signs of slowing in late summer 2026.
- The share of household consumption in Russia's GDP increased to 53.1% in the second quarter of 2026.
- The Central Bank of Russia revised its 2026 growth forecast downward to 0.0–1.0%.
- The federal budget for 2027 is expected to have a deficit of about 2% of GDP.
Points of divergence
- The average nominal salary in July 2026 reached 109,524 rubles, up 9.5% year-on-year. — riamo
- Fuel prices rose significantly: AI-92 gasoline by 26.5%, diesel by 29.4%, and monthly transit passes by 36.1% from July 2025 to July 2026. — riamo
- The share of government consumption in GDP decreased to 19.5% in Q2 2026 from 20.0% in Q2 2025. — interfax
- The 'SberIndex' showed real consumer spending in late September 2026 was only 1.2% higher than in the same period of 2025. — kommersant
- The growth rate of GDP in August 2026 was 0.8% year-on-year. — vedomosti
Coverage (20 sources)
- Rosstat assessed annual inflation in Russia — Вести
- In Russia, non-oil and gas revenues have risen — Вести
- Inflation in Russia in September amounted to 0.35%, annual indicator accelerated to 6.35% — Интерфакс
- Increase in housing and utility tariffs after elections pushed official inflation in Russia: prices rose by 0.96% in a week, and annual... — Настоящее Время
- Increase in housing and communal services tariffs after elections caused inflation rise in Russia — Meduza
- Rosstat assessed inflation for the last week — Вести
- Inflation in Russia from September 29 to October 5 amounted to 0.96% — Ведомости
- Contribution of housing and utilities tariff indexing to weekly inflation is estimated at 0.75 percentage points — Интерфакс
- Fuel prices in Russia rose by 0.29% from September 29 to October 5 — Интерфакс
- In Russia annual inflation accelerated to about 7.1% — Интерфакс
- Money supply in Russia grew by 0.6% in September — Интерфакс
- Inflation in Russia amounted to 0.96% from September 29 to October 5 — Москва 24
- Fuel and transport are becoming more expensive faster than average salaries in Russia — РИАМО
- Share of household expenditures in the structure of the Russian Federation's GDP in the second quarter increased to 53.1% — Интерфакс
- SberIndex: annual growth rate of consumption slowed — Коммерсантъ
- Inflation in Russia accelerated to 6.26% — Коммерсантъ
- Russia's GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in August — Ведомости
- Weekly inflation for the past week amounted to 0.12% — Ведомости
- Russia's GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in August, by 0.6% for January-August — Интерфакс
- Fuel prices in the Russian Federation did not change from September 22 to 28 following six weeks of growth — Интерфакс