At 'Dom.RF', a reduction in family mortgage issuance of 20-35% is… (семейный · ипотека · выдача)

At 'Dom.RF', a reduction in family mortgage issuance of 20-35% is expected. After the discussed changes to family mortgage terms, disbursements under preferential programs may drop by 30-35%.

Consensus

• The family mortgage program in Russia may see a 20-35% reduction in issuance due to proposed changes
• The changes could lead to a drop in construction investment of about 1 trillion rubles annually
• The government is discussing modifications to the family mortgage program
• The current trend shows a decline in family mortgage issuance and an increase in market-rate loans

Points of divergence

• The reduction could be as high as 30-35% in the worst-case scenario — vesti
• The actual reduction may be closer to 20% in practice — kommersant
• The changes may cause a decline in housing construction projects and a stagnation in housing delivery — vesti
• The government is considering a differentiated interest rate based on the number of children in a family — kommersant
• The Russian construction industry is at the peak of a crisis period — vesti
• The government plans to reduce the share of government programs in mortgage lending to 25-30% by 2030 — kommersant