VTB Profit Drops 4% in 2026, Sector Forecast Stabilizes
VTB reported a 4% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first eight months of 2026, while the banking sector's profit is projected to remain between 3.8 and 4.5 trillion rubles annually over the next three years, with no significant growth expected.
Consensus
- VTB's net profit for the first eight months of 21026 declined by 4% year-on-year.
- The Russian banking sector's profit is expected to remain in the range of 3.8–4.5 trillion rubles annually for the next three years.
- No significant growth in banking sector profits is expected.
- The main factors affecting banking profits are the slowdown in key rate reduction and competition among banks for clients.
- Increased provisions for credit risk may offset profit growth from portfolio expansion.
- The Central Bank of Russia maintained the key rate at 14% in September 2026.
- The Central Bank revised its 2026 profit forecast for the banking sector upward to 3.9–4.4 trillion rubles.
- In 2025, the Russian banking sector earned 3.5 trillion rubles in net profit.
- In 2024, the Russian banking sector achieved a record 3.8 trillion rubles in net profit.
- The return on equity (ROE) for the banking sector declined to 18% in 2025 from 23% in 2024.
Points of divergence
- VTB's assets grew by 5.8% year-on-year to 39 trillion rubles by the end of August 2026. — kommersant
- VTB's net interest income rose nearly 2.5 times year-on-year to 551.9 billion rubles by August 2026. — kommersant
- VTB's commission income increased by 23.5% year-on-year to 243.4 billion rubles by August 2026. — kommersant
- VTB's provisions expenses rose by 40.6% year-on-year to 166.7 billion rubles by August 2026. — kommersant
- VTB's retail loan portfolio amounted to 7.0 trillion rubles. — kommersant
- VTB's corporate loans increased by 10.4% year-on-year by August 2026. — kommersant
- VTB's retail loans decreased by 4.7% year-on-year in August 2026. — kommersant
- The Central Bank of Russia reported that the Russian banking sector's net profit in August 2026 was 440 billion rubles, a 0.7% decrease from July 2026. — vedomosti
- The return on equity (ROE) in the banking sector remained at 24% year-on-year in August 2025. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank of Russia expects annual inflation to be 6–7% in 2026 and return to the target of 4% in 2027. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank of Russia increased its 2026 profit forecast by 0.5 trillion rubles to 3.9–4.4 trillion. — interfax
- The Central Bank of Russia's 2027 profit forecast remains unchanged at 3.7–4.2 trillion rubles. — interfax
Coverage (8 sources)
- Net profit of VTB decreased by 4% over eight months — Коммерсантъ
- VTB forecasts bank profits in the next three years will not be lower than 3.8 trillion rubles — Ведомости
- Net profit of VTB decreased by 4% over eight months — Ведомости
- VTB forecasts bank sector profit of 3.8-4.5 trillion rubles per year — Фонтанка
- VTB received 314.8 billion rubles in profit over eight months — Фонтанка
- First Deputy Chairman of VTB Forecasts Fluctuations in Bank Profits in the Next 3 Years in the Range of 3.8-4.5 Trillion Rubles — Интерфакс
- VTB doubled profit under IFRS in August amid improved results on financial instruments and expense optimization — Интерфакс
- VTB does not expect significant growth in the banking sector's profits — Коммерсантъ