Russia's Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 14%

The Central Bank of Russia for the second consecutive day kept the key rate at 14%, raised the inflation forecast, and lowered the GDP forecast. The Bank of Russia left the key rate at 14% per annum.

Consensus

The Central Bank of Russia kept the key interest rate unchanged at 14% on October 23.
The decision was made during a meeting of the Bank's board of directors.
The Bank cited persistent inflationary pressures and high inflation expectations as primary reasons for the decision.
The Bank stated that future decisions on the key rate will depend on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations.
The Bank noted that stable price growth remains in the 5-6% annual range.
The Bank mentioned temporary reductions in production capacity in certain sectors as a factor affecting prices.
The next meeting on the key rate is scheduled for December 18.
Analysts and experts widely expected the rate to remain unchanged.

Points of divergence

The Bank of Russia's statement reflects concern about 'temporary reduction in production capacities' in specific sectors, which the source attributes to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, causing gasoline prices to rise over 20% in a year. — tg_bbcrussian
The Bank of Russia increased its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.1-7.6% from 6-7%, and lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2027 to 1-2% from 1.5-2.5%. — tg_astrapress
The Bank of Russia raised its inflation forecast for 2026 year to 6.2-6.3% and for 2027 to 5.2-5.7%, and increased its forecast for average oil price for taxation to $72 in 2026 and $55 in 2027. — tg_tass_agency
The Bank of Russia reported that year-on-year price growth accelerated to 8% in Q3 2026, up from 4.8% in Q2, and that core inflation rose to 6.2%. — fontanka
Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma's Financial Markets Committee, predicted that the main potential for key rate reduction would be realized in 2027, with a possible 0.25 percentage point cut before the end of 2026. — vedomosti

Coverage (20 sources)

Prices will rise more strongly than expected. The Central Bank worsened its economic forecast — what does this mean for all of us — Фонтанка
Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut rates: economy does not provide grounds — РИАМО
Ministry of Economic Development: Long-term maintenance of a high key rate brings risks — Фонтанка
Central Bank of Russia left key rate unchanged — 14% — РИАМО
RSPP: continuation of the Central Bank's strict policy leads to accumulation of systemic risks — Ведомости
Ministry of Economic Development warned about consequences of prolonged high central bank rate — Интерфакс
RSPP warns of accumulation of systemic risks, including for banks, due to strict monetary policy — Интерфакс
BBC Russian Service Economics Department Editor Olga Shamina — on the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to keep the key rate — BBC News Русская служба
Central Bank for the second consecutive time kept the key rate at 14%, raised inflation forecast and lowered GDP forecast — ASTRA
Aksakov: the main potential for reducing the key rate is realized in 2027 — Ведомости
Central Bank of Russia decided to keep key rate at 14% per annum. Main: — ТАСС (Telegram)
Central Bank for the second time in a row kept the rate at 14%. Why they did not lower it — Фонтанка
Central Bank of Russia expected to keep key rate at 14% — Интерфакс
Expert Pyryeva forecasts key rate retention at 14% — Вести
RusAgBank analyst believes Central Bank will keep current key rate — Вести
Economist Melashchenko made a forecast on the key rate — Вести
The 14% rate will remain, but the Central Bank may tighten its forecast for 2027 — РИАМО
Should one wait for a decrease in the key rate — Вечерняя Москва
In the Federation, it is forecast that the key rate of the Central Bank will not change until the end of 2026 — Вести
Economist explains how overall price increase will affect the Central Bank's decision on the key rate — Вести

Russia's Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 14%

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (20 sources)

Key entities

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