Brazil's coffee harvest hit by rains, prices to rise
Heavy rains in Brazil have damaged the coffee harvest, reducing the supply of high-quality arabica beans and causing a rise in global coffee prices, particularly for premium varieties. The impact is already visible on futures markets and may lead to higher retail prices in Russia and other countries.
Consensus
- Heavy rains in Brazil have damaged the coffee harvest.
- The quality of arabica coffee beans has been significantly affected.
- The damage has led to a reduction in the supply of high-quality coffee.
- Global coffee prices, especially for premium arabica, have increased.
- Futures prices for arabica coffee have risen by approximately 35% since June.
- Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, accounting for about 45% of global arabica production.
- The situation has affected the availability of coffee meeting international exchange standards.
- The impact is primarily on premium coffee, not on overall coffee supply.
- Russia may see higher retail prices for coffee due to rising import costs.
- Experts suggest that consumers may turn to alternatives like chicory or herbal teas.
Points of divergence
- The Russian Ministry of Agriculture did not comment officially on the coffee situation, as coffee is not grown in Russia and falls outside the ministry's direct regulation. — gazeta_spb
- The share of coffee beans meeting ICE exchange standards may drop to 10–15% this year, down from 30–35% normally. — fontanka
- The Wall Street Journal reported on 31 July 2025 that new 50% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods could increase coffee prices in the United States. — vedomosti
- A magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Colombia caused delays in about 60% of exported coffee. — vesti
Coverage (4 sources)
- Global coffee market awaits shortage and price rise: perhaps it is time to switch to chicory - SPB Newspaper - Saint Petersburg news — Gazeta.SPb
- Coffee lovers prepare: part of the Arabica harvest spoiled in Brazil — Фонтанка
- Bloomberg warned of impending shortage of quality coffee — Ведомости
- Problems with quality coffee threaten the world due to rains in Brazil — Вести