Denmark Warns of Rising Risk of Russian Attack on NATO
Danish intelligence believes Russia may attack a NATO country in the coming months. According to Danish intelligence, Russia could launch a 'limited military strike' against one of the NATO countries in the coming months, reports Financial Times.
Consensus
- Danish intelligence has assessed a 'low but growing' risk of a limited Russian military attack on one of NATO countries in the near future.
- The attack could involve the deployment of a small number of Russian troops, possibly without insignia, into a NATO country bordering Russia.
- Russia might use long-range weapons to strike infrastructure used to support Ukraine.
- The purpose of such actions could be to provoke division within NATO or test the alliance's readiness.
- A full-scale invasion of a NATO country is considered 'extremely unlikely' but not entirely excluded.
- Russia would need about six months to prepare for a limited military operation against a NATO country.
- Danish intelligence expects an increase in hybrid attacks, including destructive cyberattacks and high-risk sabotage.
- The risk is attributed to increased pressure on Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Points of divergence
- Russia may resort to such an 'desperate move' to force European states to reallocate military resources due to support for Ukraine. — tg_dwglavnoe
- The U.S. intelligence previously warned several European governments about potential drone attacks by Russia on Spain, France, or Italy in 2027, using drones disguised as cargo on merchant ships. — tg_dwglavnoe
- The drones mentioned are of the 'Herber' type, and the timing coincides with elections in the three countries, which could be exploited by radical forces. — tg_dwglavnoe
- The Danish intelligence believes Russia is under greater pressure now than at any time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. — novaya_eu
- Russia is not expected to achieve a major breakthrough on the battlefield in the next six months. — novaya_eu
- Russian actions could occur even if the war in Ukraine continues, contrary to previous Western assessments that such actions would only happen if the Ukraine war were frozen. — tg_agentstvonews
Coverage (5 sources)
- Danish Intelligence Warns of 'Growing Risk' of Russian Attack on One NATO Country — DW Главное
- Danish intelligence believes Russia may attack a NATO country in the coming months — ЭХО / Новости
- Danish intelligence warns of 'low but rising' risk of limited Russian attack on NATO country in coming months — Новая газета Европа
- Deny warns of Russia attack on NATO in coming months — The Moscow Times
- Danish intelligence allowed a Russian military strike on a NATO country in the coming months — Агентство. Новости