ECB Upgrades Eurozone Growth Outlook for 2026-2027
Other small economies in the eurozone also demonstrated high growth rates: Malta's GDP grew by 5% in the second quarter, Slovenia's by 4.8%, and Lithuania's by 3.8%.
Consensus
- The European Central Bank revised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone upward for both 2026 and 2028.
- The ECB cited stronger-than-expected economic resilience as the reason for the upward revision.
- Inflation in the eurozone is expected to remain significantly above the ECB's 2% target for an extended period.
- The conflict in the Middle East continues to exert inflationary pressure on the eurozone.
- The ECB noted ongoing risks that inflation could be higher and economic growth lower than projected.
- Eurostat reported a 1.2% annual GDP growth for the eurozone in the second quarter of 2026.
- Consumer spending and investment activity were key drivers of the second-quarter 2026 GDP growth.
Points of divergence
- The eurozone's GDP grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. — kommersant
- Consumer spending increased by 1.2% year-on-year and contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016. — kommersant
- The growth in the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter of 2025 was influenced by a sharp increase in Ireland's GDP, which rose by 10.2% quarter-on-quarter. — kommersant
- Several small eurozone economies, including Malta, Slovenia, and Lithuania, showed high growth rates in the second quarter of 2024. — kommersant
- The ECB's revised forecast for 2026 GDP growth is 0.9%, and for 2027 it is 1.4%. — interfax
- The ECB revised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 2.5% from 2.3% and for 2028 to 2.1% from 2.2%. — interfax
- The ECB's baseline forecast for 2028 GDP growth remains at 1.5%. — interfax
Coverage (2 sources)
- ECB improved forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2026-2028 — Интерфакс
- GDP of the eurozone increased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2026 — Коммерсантъ