Expert: Escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran leads to…

Expert: Escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran leads to a sharp rise in oil prices. Therefore, in the last days before the start of intense US attacks on Iran, oil futures fluctuated at $76-77 per barrel, while the actual price of oil reached $85-90.

Consensus

A memorandum was signed between the United States and Iran in June to resolve their conflict.
The conflict resumed after attacks by both sides began again in July.
The situation has led to a significant increase in oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the dispute, with concerns over its closure affecting global energy markets.
Oil prices were previously stable around $76–$77 per barrel on futures and $85–$90 in real terms before the escalation.

Points of divergence

The memorandum was signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 18, but the U.S. resumed attacks against Iran on July 8, citing Iranian actions against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. — vesti
The memorandum was signed electronically by President Trump, Vice-President Vance, and Speaker Ghalibaf; an official signing ceremony was scheduled for June 19. — interfax
Iran will not make concessions to the U.S. because control of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as vital to Iran's geopolitical survival. — vesti
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and officials expect prolonged effects on global inflation due to high energy prices. — interfax

Coverage (3 sources)

Expert: Escalation of US-Iran Conflict Leads to Sharp Rise in Oil Prices — Вести
Analyst Yushkov Reveals How the Iran-US Conflict Will Impact the Oil Market — Вести
Head of German Central Bank Expects Long-Term Consequences of Oil Price Surge for Global Economy — Интерфакс

Expert: Escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran leads to…

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (3 sources)

Key entities

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