Fitch Upgrades 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.6%
Fitch Ratings upgraded its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%, citing resilient economic growth despite energy shocks and tighter monetary policies, with expectations of continued rate hikes by the Fed and ECB, and a rebound in Germany's economy.
Consensus
- Fitch Ratings upgraded its forecast for global GDP growth in 2026 to 2.6% from the previous 2.4%.
- The upgrade was based on resilient global economic growth despite energy shocks.
- Fitch expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2024 and hold them steady in 2025.
- By the end of 2027, U.S. interest rates will be 125 basis points higher than projected in June.
- The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates in October 2024, with potential rate cuts in 2025 if oil prices fall to $70 per barrel.
- Fitch upgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 and 2027 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%.
- Germany's GDP is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 after three years of stagnation.
- Fitch cited central banks' efforts to prevent secondary effects from energy cost shocks, similar to those after the pandemic.
Points of divergence
- Fitch expects the new chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, to shift policy toward a more hawkish stance. — interfax
- The Bank of Japan accelerated its tightening measures. — interfax
- Fitch expects continued investment growth in artificial intelligence without signs of decline. — interfax
- Fitch revised upward the growth forecast for South Korea. — interfax
- Fitch previously warned of risks to EU and Asian economies due to the war in Iran, including rising energy prices and slower growth. — vedomosti
Coverage (2 sources)
- Fitch upgraded global GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.6% — Интерфакс
- Fitch raised global economic growth forecast to 2.6% — Ведомости