Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated in… (нефть · цена · сша)
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated in mid-July, leading to a rise in oil prices as markets reacted to airstrikes and threats of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, the Russian ruble remained relatively stable due to mixed influences including sanctions risks, seasonal currency demand, and delayed export revenues.
Consensus
- The U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes on Iranian targets in central and southern Iran starting from July 8.
- Iran responded with missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
- The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed by Iran 'until further notice' amid the escalation.
- Oil prices, particularly Brent crude, rose significantly due to concerns over potential supply disruptions from the region.
- Futures for Brent crude exceeded $78 per barrel on July 8 and reached up to $79.80 during the week.
- The U.S. revoked a previous license allowing operations with Iranian oil and issued a new one restricting all transactions by July 17.
Points of divergence
- The ruble's weakening was driven more by seasonal demand for foreign currency from the public and reduced supply from exporters than by geopolitical tensions, despite oil price increases. — kommersant
- Six ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, marking the lowest number in five weeks, signaling potential supply risks. — interfax
- Iran claimed to have destroyed U.S. Patriot missile defense systems and strategic radar installations at American bases. — vedomosti
- President Trump declared the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran no longer valid, calling Iranian leaders 'frauds' and 'sick people'. — vm
Coverage (18 sources)
- Dollar rate. Forecast for July 16-17 — Коммерсантъ
- Brent oil price exceeded $83 per barrel for the first time since mid-June — Коммерсантъ
- Brent price exceeded $80 per barrel after Trump's statement on blocking Iranian ports — Коммерсантъ
- Oil prices rise due to escalation in the Middle East; Brent at $78.6 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Brent prices rose to $79 per barrel — Ведомости
- Brent oil rises to $79.3 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Oil prices rise due to escalation in the Middle East — Коммерсантъ
- Brent remains in the green and trades at $76.63 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Brent crude rises to $76.61 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Oil prices rose by more than 7%, Brent climbs above $80 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Brent prices surged by 6% amid Trump's statements — Ведомости
- Brent crude barrel price exceeded $78 after Trump's comments on Iran — Вечерняя Москва
- Brent oil price exceeded $78 on news of US-Iran ceasefire breakdown — Коммерсантъ
- Brent crude rises to $76.29 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Brent crude oil first exceeds $76 per barrel since the end of June — Ведомости
- Brent crude rises to $72.99 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Brent crude rises to $73 per barrel — Ведомости
- Brent crude rises to $72.56 per barrel — Интерфакс