"The economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no…
"The economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting" — report after which the head was fired...
Consensus
- Andrey Klepach was dismissed as chief economist of VEB.RF on August 16.
- The dismissal followed the publication of a report on the state of the Russian economy.
- The report was presented by Klepach in May at a Nikitsky Club meeting.
- Western sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine have severed economic ties between Russia and the EU.
- Russia's economy is highly dependent on China for trade, more so than previously on the EU.
- Military spending has boosted GDP and real incomes, but has also strained the budget and slowed civilian economic growth.
- Real disposable income growth is estimated at 0.6% for the current year.
- Only the pharmaceutical and fertilizer industries grew in 2025, and even they slowed toward year-end.
- Ukrainian military strikes have damaged oil, gas, and port infrastructure, creating a macroeconomic barrier to growth.
- Oil production may not exceed 500–505 million tons, with the peak already passed by mid- or late 2024.
- Oil prices are expected to drop significantly in the second half of 2024 and especially in 2027.
- The agricultural sector is in crisis, with declining profitability and income for farmers, and imports of food and agricultural goods exceeding exports for the first time in years.
Points of divergence
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only to China and the US, but in certain areas as well. — tg_dwglavnoe
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only to Chinese and the US, but in certain areas as well. — tg_sibrealii
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only with China and the US, but in certain sectors as well. — tg_severrealii
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only against China and the US, but in specific areas as well. — tg_svobodnieslova
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only versus China and the US, but in particular fields as well. — tg_radiosvoboda
- Russia is losing technological and economic competition not only in China and the US, but in some areas as well. — tg_theinsider
Coverage (6 sources)
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — DW Главное
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — Сибирь.Реалии
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — Север.Реалии
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — Вёрстка
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — Радио Свобода
- «Economy will hold, but we will reach a social crisis when no one is waiting» — report after which the head was fired... — The Insider