Global oil demand forecast to decline in 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both revised their forecasts for global oil demand in 2026, with both agencies predicting a decline compared to 2025, though with differing magnitudes and reasons. The EIA expects a drop of 1.25 million barrels per day (b/d), while the IEA forecasts a larger decline of 1.56 million b/d, citing ongoing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor.
Consensus
- Global oil demand is forecast to decline in 2026 compared to 2025.
- Both the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) и the International Energy Agency (IEA) updated their forecasts for global oil demand in 2016.
- The EIA and IEA both project an increase in global oil demand in 2027 compared to 2026.
- Global oil inventories declined in the second and third quarters of 2024.
- The EIA and IEA both noted a reduction in oil supply due to risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Points of divergence
- The EIA expects global oil demand in 2026 to be 102.73 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.25 million b/d from the previous year. — riamo
- The EIA revised its 2027 forecast upward by 200,000 b/d, projecting demand at 104.96 million b/d. — riamo
- The EIA expects oil prices to reach $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 and around $69 in 2027. — riamo
- The IEA forecasts a 1.56 million b/d decline in global oil demand in 2026 compared to the previous year, a worsening of the previous forecast by 510,000 b/d. — interfax
- The IEA attributes the worsening 2026 forecast to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected supply and driven up prices. — interfax
- The IEA reports that global oil inventories fell by 69 million barrels in July, with 63 million barrels in tankers, due to reduced shipments amid renewed shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. — interfax
- The IEA notes that global oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025. — interfax
- The IEA revised its 2027 demand forecast upward by 411,000 b/d to 105.71 million b/d. — interfax
- The IEA reports that oil demand in OECD countries will fall by 388,000 b/d in 2026 and rise by 304,000 b/d in 2017, while non-OECD demand will fall by 1.17 million b/d in 2026. — interfax
Coverage (3 sources)
- US Energy Department forecasts decline in hydrocarbon demand in 2026 — РИАМО
- MEP lowered assessment of global oil demand drop in 2026 by 0.5 million b/d — Интерфакс
- US Energy Department expects global oil demand to fall by 1.25 million barrels per day in 2026 — Интерфакс