Armenia Faces 69% Gas Price Surge if Leaving EAEU
The price of gas imports for Armenia upon exiting the Eurasian Economic Union will increase by 69%.
Consensus
- The cost of gas imports for Armenia would increase by 69% if it exits the EAEU.
- The projected cost of gas imports would rise from $389 million to $657.5 million annually.
- The price increase is based on a scenario where gas prices reach $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, up from the current $177.5.
- The report was prepared by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgystan as members of the Eurasian intergovernmental council.
- The price increase would lead to higher production and household costs, inflation, and negative impacts on GDP.
- Armenia's potential exit from the EAEU is linked to its pursuit of closer ties with the European Union.
- The report was published on October 20.
- The EAEU has the legal right to temporarily suspend Armenia's membership due to risks from its actions.
Points of divergence
- The export of goods from Armenia to EAEU countries would decrease by more than 65%, and trade volume with EAEU countries would fall by over 55%. — fontanka
- Remittances from Russia to Armenia could drop by more than half, from $3.88 billion to $1.8 billion annually. — fontanka
- Russia may cancel duty-free exports of gas, oil products, and diamonds to Armenia. — fontanka
- The Central Bank of Armenia described a potential gas price increase as an 'apocalyptic scenario' that could slow economic growth and accelerate inflation. — vedomosti
- There were reports in September that Russia might stop gas deliveries to Armenia from November 1, citing a list of conditions from Moscow. — vedomosti
- Economist Tatul Manaserian stated that Armenia's economy cannot survive a gas price increase, as it would trigger a spiral of inflation and higher utility and product prices. — vedomosti
- The market price of gas in 2013 was around $270 per 1,000 m³, and in 2025, the average TTF price was about $422 per 1,000 m³. — interfax
Coverage (6 sources)
- Import of gas for Armenia will increase by 69 percent upon exit from EAEU — Вечерняя Москва
- Armenia warned of significant gas price increase in case of exit from EAEU — Вести
- Gas is 69% more expensive, trade will halve. Armenia calculated the price of exiting the EAEU — Фонтанка
- Price of Armenia's gas import upon exit from EAEU will increase by 69% — Ведомости
- Gas for Armenia will become 69% more expensive in case of suspension of membership in EAEU — Интерфакс
- Cost of gas imports to Armenia will rise by 69% - to $657.5 million per year upon the country's exit from the EAEU. — РИА Новости (Telegram)