Agricultural market analysts have lowered the forecast for Russian…
Agricultural market analysts have lowered the forecast for Russian wheat exports in July from 2 million tons to 1.5 million tons; over the past five years, the average figure has been 3.1 million tons. In 2017, Russia exported 1.4 million tons of wheat.
Consensus
- Russia's wheat exports in July 2026 are projected to reach 1.5 million tons.
- This would be the lowest July export volume since 2017, when Russia exported 1.4 million tons.
- The decline is attributed to restrictions on navigation through the Kerch Strait and weak demand from Turkey and Egypt.
- Russia's wheat exports in July 2025 amounted to 2.1 million tons.
- The average annual export volume over the past five years is 3.1 million tons.
- Zero export duties on wheat and barley will remain effective starting July 29, 2026.
- Corn export duty will be set at 232.6 rubles/ton from July 29 to August 4, 2026.
Points of divergence
- Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut reported that over 21 million tons of grain were harvested in Russia since the beginning of 2026. — vedomosti
- Ilya Ilyushin, head of Federal Center 'Agroexport', stated that agricultural exports reached $20 billion in the first half of 2026 and grew by 26% year-on-year. — vedomosti
- Ilya Ilyushin reported a 43% increase in shipments of grains and legumes compared to the previous year. — vedomosti
- The zero export duty on wheat has been maintained since April 22, with only one week (July 3–10) when it was temporarily set at 370.1 rubles per ton. — interfax
- The grain buffer mechanism introduced in June 2021 calculates export duties based on weekly price indicators from Moscow Exchange, with the duty equal to 70% of the difference between base and indicative prices. — interfax
Coverage (8 sources)
- Export duties on wheat and barley from Russia will be zero as of July 29, corn duty set at 232.6 rubles/ton — Интерфакс
- Export duties on wheat, barley, and corn from Russia will be zero starting July 22 — Интерфакс
- SovEcon lowers wheat harvest forecast for Russia in 2026 — Интерфакс
- July wheat exports may be the lowest since 2017 — Ведомости
- Analysts Expect Russian Wheat Exports to Drop to 2017 Minimum in July — Вести
- July wheat exports from Russia may be the lowest since 2017 — Коммерсантъ
- Russian wheat exports in July may reach minimum levels since 2017 — Интерфакс
- Export tariffs on wheat, barley, and corn from Russia will be zero starting July 15 — Интерфакс