Inflationary risks have not changed, specifically regarding high…
Inflationary risks have not changed, specifically regarding high inflation expectations, a prolonged period of wage growth outpacing productivity growth, and worsening global economic prospects alongside rising global price pressures amid geopolitical tensions.
Consensus
- Pro-inflationary risks have increased due to a temporary decline in motor fuel production
- De-inflationary risks are linked to a slower domestic demand
- The Central Bank of Russia maintained its key rate at 14.25%
- Pro-inflationary risks still dominate in the medium term
- The CBR cited high inflation expectations and wage growth as contributing factors
Points of divergence
- The key rate was reduced by 25 basis points for the ninth consecutive time, with only two out of 19 experts expecting this move, while most expected a reduction to 14% or 13.5–14% — vedomosti
Coverage (2 sources)
- CB: Pro-inflation risks have increased due to reduced motor fuel production — Ведомости
- CB Reports Rising Pro-Inflation Risks Due to Decline in Fuel Production — Коммерсантъ