Kazakhstan cuts 2026 oil target over drone attacks

Kazakhstan will adjust its 2026 oil production plan downward, from 98 million tons to 96 million tons, said the country's energy minister, Erlan Akkenzhenov.

Consensus

• Kazakhstan has reduced its 2025 oil production target for 2026 from 98 million to 96 million metric tons.
• The reduction is due to Ukrainian drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (KPC).
• Approximately 3.5 million metric tons of oil have been lost due to the attacks.
• The Caspian Pipeline Consortium transports about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports via the Novorossiysk terminal.
• The attacks occurred in January and resumed in June and July.
• The KPC terminal currently operates with two of three floating berths, as one was damaged in late 2025.
• Kazakhstan continues to export oil through the KPC terminal in normal mode.
• The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan confirmed the impact of the attacks on production and export plans.

Points of divergence

• The initial target for 2025 was 98 million tons, later adjusted to 96 million tons. — tg_bbcrussian
• The initial target was 99.55 million tons, aiming to reach nearly 100 million tons. — vedomosti
• The initial target was 99.5 million tons, aiming to reach 100 million tons. — kommersant
• The initial target was 100 million tons, later reduced to 98 million tons before being adjusted to 96 million. — interfax
• The KPC will conduct capital repairs in the next year, and the repair will be carried out by NCOC operators. — vedomosti
• The repair for the Tengiz and Kashagan fields has been postponed to 2027. — interfax
• Kazakhstan is ready to supply gasoline to Russia regardless of sanctions, provided capacity allows. — vedomosti
• President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called on Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to hold peace talks in July. — tg_bbcrussian
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan stated that the attacks are an unacceptable violation of the country's economic interests and endanger the lives of civilian crew members. — vedomosti
• The 2025 oil production in Kazakhstan was 99.6 million tons. — interfax

Coverage (4 sources)

• Kazakhstan assessed reduction in oil production in the country due to attacks of Ukrainian drones on Novorossiysk — BBC News Русская служба
• Due to Ukrainian attacks, Kazakhstan lost about 3.5 million tons of oil — Ведомости
• Kazakhstan lost 3.5 million tons of oil due to attacks on KTK — Коммерсантъ
• Kazakhstan will reduce 2026 oil production plan to 96 million tons due to KTK malfunctions — Интерфакс

Key entities

• Kazakhstan
• Yerlan Akkenzhenov
• KTK
• Novorossiysk, Kazakhstan
• Moscow
• INTERFAX.RU
• Ukrainian Armed Forces
• TASS
• Novorossiysk
• Ministry of Energy
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium
• Sputnik Kazakhstan

More on Yerlan Akkenzhenov

• Kazakhstan halts oil shipments to Germany for 3 months
• Kazakh Refineries Skip Fuel Exports to Russia
• Kazakhstan Plans Mid-September Repair at Karachaganak Field