Marketplaces face temporary setbacks from drone attacks
VTB assesses the consequences of strikes on the logistics infrastructure of marketplaces as 'manageable' for borrowers and does not forecast significant additional loan reserves.
Consensus
- Drone attacks on logistics infrastructure of Russian marketplaces began in mid-July 2026.
- The attacks have led to temporary revenue declines and reduced credit quality for marketplaces.
- The VTB bank does not expect a significant increase in credit reserves or a multiple increase in company debt.
- Marketplaces may shift from 'first-class' to 'normal' borrower categories under stress scenarios.
- The impact on the banking sector is considered manageable and not critical.
- Government tax measures and consumer demand are seen as stabilizing factors.
- Normalization of price competition will reduce discounts for consumers.
- Restrukturization requests are coming from sellers, not marketplaces themselves.
- Requests from sellers are estimated in the hundreds of millions of rubles.
- The VTB bank considers this amount small relative to its balance sheet.
- The VTB bank expects infrastructure reconstruction to require significant investment.
- The VTB bank anticipates EBITDA margins will be affected in 2027 due to infrastructure reorganization.
Points of divergence
- Wildberries attacks began in mid-July; Ozon attacks started at the end of August. — kommersant
- Ozon was first attacked on August 22, 2026, causing a 24% drop in its stock price. — fontanka
- The VTB bank expects the RWB acquisition deal to close in September, with no changes to the 300–400 billion ruble rights issue. — vedomosti
- The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development are developing support measures for marketplaces. — kommersant
- The VTB bank has not received any restructuring requests directly from marketplaces. — fontanka
- Wildberries lost 17–22% of its infrastructure according to analyst estimates. — kommersant
Coverage (3 sources)
- VTB warned about a decline in marketplace indicators in 2027 — Коммерсантъ
- VTB does not expect further reserve allocations for marketplace loans after strikes — Ведомости
- VTB does not expect multiple-fold growth of marketplace debts due to drone attacks on warehouses — Фонтанка