The Kremlin has lowered its expectations for the United Russia party…
The Kremlin has lowered its expectations for the United Russia party in the State Duma elections for the second time, from 55% to 45%. Previously, United Russia achieved a result of 49% in the Duma elections.
Consensus
- The Kremlin has reduced its expected vote share for United Russia in the September 2026 State Duma elections from 55% to 45%.
- The target voter turnout remains at 50%.
- There are ongoing internal discussions within Russian leadership about potentially postponing or canceling the elections.
- Official sources, including Dmitry Peskov, have stated that no decision to postpone the elections has been made.
- United Russia's polling numbers are reported to be low, with estimates around 35% according to some surveys.
Points of divergence
- The Kremlin has lowered its KPI for United Russia from 55%, then 50%, down to 45% in several federal districts, with regional officials confirming this shift. The reduction is attributed to declining party popularity and public fatigue. — meduza
- United Russia has repositioned itself as a direct political vehicle of Vladimir Putin, similar to 2007, emphasizing the symbolic role of elections in testing political legitimacy rather than achieving competitive outcomes. — novaya_eu
- Security services, including FSB and Rosgvardia leadership, are pushing for a postponement or cancellation of the elections due to economic crisis, fuel shortages, war fatigue, and recent drone attacks on Moscow. However, this is not supported by the political block of the Presidential Administration. — thebell
Coverage (3 sources)
- Kremlin lowers expectations for 'United Russia' in State Duma elections to 45%, citing crisis and falling ratings — Meduza
- Wear and tear on the electorate. Why Putin holds elections in the fifth year of war — Новая газета Европа
- Meduza reports on attempts by security officials to convince Putin to postpone Duma elections; Kremlin says no discussion is taking place — The Bell
Key entities
- Vladimir Putin
- United Russia
- State Duma
- Meduza
- Kremlin
- AP
- Moscow
- MID
- Media
- Sergey Sobyanin
- FSB
- Dmitry Medvedev
- Rosguard
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