Credit growth accelerates across all segments in Q2 2026
Credit growth accelerated across all segments in the second quarter of 2026, with consumer loans leading the increase, while mortgage and corporate lending also rose, according to the Central Bank and VTB forecasts.
Consensus
- Credit growth accelerated in all segments during the second quarter of 2026.
- Consumer loan growth increased significantly in the second quarter of 2026.
- Mortgage debt continued to grow moderately in the second quarter of 2026.
- The Central Bank of Russia reported that corporate lending, including bonds, increased by 3.7% in Q2 2026.
- The Central Bank revised its annual profit forecast for banks upward to 3.9–4.4 trillion rubles.
- VTB forecasted a 66% increase in consumer loan disbursements in 2026.
- VTB projected total retail credit disbursements in 2026 to reach 13 trillion rubles.
- VTB forecasted mortgage disbursements in 2026 would reach 5.2 trillion rubles.
- VTB reported that mortgage disbursements in the first seven months of 2026 reached 2.6 trillion rubles, up 38% year-on-year.
- VTB projected that retail credit disbursements in the second half of 2026 would grow by 22% compared to the same period in 2025.
Points of divergence
- The Central Bank reported that consumer credit growth accelerated to 2.8% in Q2 2026 from 0.3% in Q1, driven by seasonal spending on vacations. — vedomosti
- VTB forecasted that consumer credit disbursements would grow by 66% in 2026, reaching 5.9 trillion rubles, with a focus on cash loans. — vesti
- The share of subsidized mortgages decreased to about 60% in Q2 2026, down from 68% in Q1. — vedomosti
- VTB stated that consumer credit growth would outpace mortgage and auto lending in 2026. — vesti
- VTB forecasted that market mortgage disbursements would reach 2.4 trillion rubles in 2026, a 2.5-fold increase. — vedomosti
- VTB forecasted that government mortgage programs would decline to 2.8 trillion rubles in 2026 from nearly 3.5 trillion in 2025. — vesti
Coverage (3 sources)
- Central Bank noted growth in lending across all segments in the second quarter — Ведомости
- VTB forecasts growth of market mortgage by 2.5 times — Ведомости
- VTB forecasts that consumer loans in 2026 will grow faster than mortgages — Вести