At high oil prices, currency revenue is expected to rise and the…
At high oil prices, currency revenue is expected to rise and the national currency to strengthen.
Consensus
- Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since July 24.
- The Russian ruble weakened despite high oil prices.
- Experts agree that the usual link between high oil prices and ruble strength is currently disrupted.
- Russia maintains a trade surplus, exporting more goods than it imports.
- The budget rule redirects excess oil revenues away from the domestic market.
- Exporters may retain foreign currency earnings abroad for import payments.
- Physical export volumes remain relatively low compared to previous years.
Points of divergence
- Economist Andrey Podoinitsyn stated there is no direct link between oil prices and ruble strength, emphasizing the importance of external trade balance and currency control. — vm
- Analyst Alina Popcova from Alpha Capital highlighted the budget rule, exporter behavior, and low physical export volumes as key reasons for the weak ruble effect. — riamo
- Vasily Koltasov from the Center for Political Economic Research suggested the ruble's weakness is a deliberate policy to fill the budget, with a possible strengthening expected in late October or November. — vesti
Coverage (3 sources)
- How the rise in oil prices will affect the ruble — Вечерняя Москва
- Oil at $100 won't save the ruble? Expert reveals unexpected factor — РИАМО
- Economist explains why expensive oil does not strengthen the ruble — Вести
Key entities
- Andrey Podoinitsyn
- Moscow
- KP.RU
- RIAMO
- UK «Alpha Capital»
- Institute of the New Society
- Vasily Kol'tashov
- Center for Political Economy Research