OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast
According to OPEC analysts' estimates, total oil demand in non-OECD countries in 2026 will be 59.7 million barrels per day, accounting for a total consumption growth of 0.49 million barrels per day (previous forecast - 0.61 million barrels per day).
Consensus
- OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast to 105.84 million barrels per day.
- The 2026 forecast was revised downward from 0.6 million barrels per day to 0.4 million barrels per day.
- OPEC increased its 2027 oil demand growth forecast.
- The increase in oil demand in 2027 is expected to be 2.36 million barrels per day.
- Oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected at 1.92 million barrels per day for 2027.
- Oil demand in OECD countries is expected to grow by 430 thousand barrels per day in 2027.
- OPEC's 2025 global oil demand forecast is 105.46 million barrels per day.
- The forecast for oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 was lowered to 102.92 million barrels per day.
- Oil demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 is expected to reach 106.27 million and 107.85 million barrels per day, respectively.
- Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries rose by 9.8 million barrels in July compared to June.
- Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries were 57 million barrels below the same month last year.
- Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries were 47.9 million barrels below the five-year average.
Points of divergence
- OPEC expects oil demand growth in 2026 to reach 0.4 million barrels per day and to reach 105.84 million barrels per second. — kommersant
- OPEC revised the 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 0.38 million barrels per day, down from 0.58 million barrels per day. — interfax
- The main drivers of oil demand growth in 2026 are Canada, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. — kommersant
- The reduction in demand growth is due to weaker expectations in OECD countries, particularly in Europe and Asia, and slower growth in China. — interfax
- OPEC+ increased oil production in August by 628 thousand barrels per day, reaching 29.633 million barrels per day, with Iraq leading the increase. — kommersant
- No mention of OPEC+ production increase or specific country contributions in the report. — interfax
Coverage (2 sources)
- OPEC again worsened forecast for growth in global oil demand in 2026 — Коммерсантъ
- OPEC lowered forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 200 thousand barrels per day — Интерфакс