OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast
OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by another 200 thousand barrels per day compared to the July forecast, to 580 thousand b/d. Total demand will be 105.7 million b/d. This is according to OPEC's monthly report.
Consensus
- OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth projection by 200,000 b/d compared to the July forecast.
- The revised 2026 oil demand forecast is 105.7 million b/d.
- OPEC+ members will continue operating under previously approved production quotas without additional voluntary cuts.
- The forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth is 2.16 million b/d.
- The 2027 oil demand forecast is 107.9 million b/d.
- Oil demand in non-OECD countries is expected to be the main driver of global growth in 2026 and 2027.
- Oil demand in OECD countries is expected to decline slightly in 2025 and grow in 2027.
Points of divergence
- OPEC expects oil production growth in 2026 to reach 640,000 b/d with total production at 54.8 million b/d. — kommersant
- OPEC expects oil production growth in 2017 to reach 620,000 b/d with total output at 55.45 million b/d. — kommersant
- In July, seven OPEC+ countries produced 24.3 million b/d, up 1.42 million b/d from June. — kommersant
- Iraq increased production by 665,000 b/d; Algeria by 8,000 b/d; Russia reduced output by 6,000 b/d. — kommersant
- OPEC's 2026 demand growth forecast is 0.6 million b/d, with total demand at 105.74 million b/d. — vesti
- OPEC revised the 2026 demand forecast from 0.78 million b/d to 0.58 million b/d. — interfax
- OPEC lowered demand forecasts for OECD countries: Europe from 90,000 b/d to 120,000 b/d decline, Asia from 120,000 to 170,000 b/d decline. — interfax
- OPEC revised growth forecasts for China and India: China from 120,000 b/s to 90,000 b/s, India from 90,000 to 60,000 b/d. — interfax
- OPEC revised growth forecast for other Asian countries outside OECD from 220,000 b/d to 170,000. — interfax
- OPEC maintained first-quarter 2026 demand at 105.98 million b/d, but revised second-quarter forecast down by 560,000 b/d to 103.11 million b/d. — interfax
- OPEC revised third-quarter 2026 forecast down by 190,000 b/d to 2.18 million b/d. — interfax
- OPEC revised fourth-quarter 2026 forecast down by 60,000 b/d to107.66 million b/d. — interfax
Coverage (3 sources)
- OPEC again lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 — Коммерсантъ
- OPEC worsened forecast for growth in global oil demand in 2026 — Вести
- OPEC lowered forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 200 thousand barrels per day — Интерфакс