Russia Aims for Budget Balance by 2028–2028
The pace of budget balance normalization is important for the economy; parameters for the phased transition to a structural budget balance in 2028-2028 were discussed, said Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Economic Development.
Consensus
- The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects the federal and regional budgets to achieve a structural budget balance by 2030.
- The pace of budget normalization will influence government borrowing and credit availability for the private sector.
- The key interest rate will play a central role in the normalization process.
- Budgetary demand and private consumption are key drivers of current economic activity.
- The full draft of the three-year budget will be submitted to the State Duma in late September.
- The final version of the Unified State Monetary and Credit Policy (ODKP) will be presented by the Central Bank in late October to early November.
- Investment growth is expected to resume starting in 2027–2028.
- The Ministry of Economic Development revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to 0.6% from 0.4%.
Points of divergence
- The Ministry of Finance previously aimed to reach a zero structural deficit by 2025, but this target was delayed due to a 2.3% decline in investment activity in 2025. — kommersant
- The macroeconomic survey by the Central Bank shows inflation forecasts for 2026 increased to 6.6% (from 6.2%), with inflation expected to slow to 4.6% in 2027 and remain near target in 2028–2029. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank's forecast for 2026 key interest rate remains at 14.5% annually, implying an average of 13.7% for the remainder of the year. — vedomosti
- The projected deficit of the consolidated budget is 3.5% of GDP in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, higher than previous estimates. — vedomosti
- Federal budget deficit in January–July 2026 was 6.455 trillion rubles, or 2.8% of GDP, with revenues at 22.112 trillion rubles (+8.8% YoY). — vedomosti
- The Ministry of Finance has not yet released an updated forecast for the federal budget deficit over the next three years. — interfax
- The calibration of the budget with fiscal decisions and regional budgets is still ongoing and will take until mid-September. — interfax
Coverage (3 sources)
- Reshetnikov spoke about plans to reduce budget deficit over three years — Коммерсантъ
- MinEk expects budget to reach zero deficit in 2028-2028 — Ведомости
- Ministry of Economic Development expects phased exit to zero structural budget deficit in 2028-29 — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Maxim Reshetnikov
- RBC
- Ministry of Economic Development
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Russia
- Ministry of Economic Development