Russia's fuel market to stabilize by October, says Central Bank
The situation in the fuel market will become clearer and more predictable by the October supporting meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but it is too early to draw conclusions, said Kirill Tremasov, advisor to the Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia expects the situation on the fuel market to become more predictable by October.
- The current rise in gasoline prices is largely attributed to seasonal demand, particularly the August peak.
- It is too early to draw conclusions about the fuel market situation.
- The Central Bank will base its assessment on monthly inflation data rather than weekly data.
- The Bank's baseline scenario assumes that production capacities, including those damaged by drone attacks, will be restored by the end of the year.
- The next key interest rate meeting is scheduled for 11 September, with the main policy meeting on 23 October.
- The Central Bank will update its medium-term macroeconomic forecast at the October meeting.
- There are no significant deviations from the baseline scenario at this time, so no forecast revisions are expected.
Points of divergence
- On 31 August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed Rosneft and FAS to strengthen monitoring of pricing at independent gas stations and to prevent fuel shortages. — vedomosti
- The Russian government approved temporary sales of gasoline and diesel fuel with environmental classes K2, K3, K4, and K5 (Euro-2 to Euro-5) at gas stations from 1 September 2026 to 30 June 2027. — vedomosti
- Ministry of Energy and oil companies are working on even distribution of fuel across federal subjects, with special attention to agricultural producers. — vedomosti
- Fuel supplies to northern regions are being delivered on schedule. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank expects secondary inflationary effects from fuel prices to be fully assessable only next year, after full annual data is available. — interfax
Coverage (4 sources)
- Central Bank expects fuel situation to become more predictable by October — Фонтанка
- At the Central Bank, they explained when the fuel situation in Russia will become predictable — Ведомости
- Central Bank expects more predictable situation in Russia's fuel market by October — Интерфакс
- At the Central Bank, it was stated that the situation on the fuel market does not affect the harvest collection — Интерфакс
Key entities
- CB
- Bank of Russia
- Russia
- Kirill Tremasov
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Ministry of Agriculture and Food
- Alexey Zabolotkin
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