Russia's inflation forecast raised to 7.1–7.6% for 2026
The Central Bank of Russia raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 6–7% to 7.1–7.6%.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia increased its 2026 inflation forecast from 6–7% to 7.1–7.6%
- The year-end inflation forecast for 2026 is 7.1–7.6%
- Inflation is expected to return to the 4% target by 2027
- The key interest rate remains at 14% as of October 23
- Inflation on October 19 was estimated at 6.8%
- The third quarter of 2026 saw a year-on-year price growth of 8% after 4.8% in the second quarter
- Core inflation rose to 6.2% in the third quarter from 4.5% in the second quarter
- Volatility in fuel prices continues to affect inflation dynamics
- Inflation expectations among the population and financial market participants remain high
Points of divergence
- The Central Bank revised its 2027 economic growth forecast downward from 1.5–2.5% to 1–2% — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its 2026 economic growth forecast upward from 0–1% to 0.5–1% — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its 2028 key rate forecast upward to 9–10% from 8–9% — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its 2025 key rate forecast upward to 12.5–13.5% from 10.5–12.5% — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its forecast for oil prices upward to $72 per barrel for 2026 and $55 for 2027 — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its external trade forecast upward, with exports expected at $499 billion and imports at $349 billion in 2026 — fontanka
- The Central Bank revised its current account surplus forecast upward to $71 billion from $48 billion in 2026 — fontanka
- Inflation expectations among the population decreased by one percentage point to 13.2% in October — vedomosti
- Five-year inflation expectations among the population increased from 10.7% to 12.2% — vedomosti
- Weekly inflation slowed to 0.05% from 0.11% in the week of October 13–19 — vedomosti
- Analysts' inflation forecast for 2026 increased from 6.6% to 7.1% — vedomosti
- Persistent inflation is attributed to temporary reductions in production capacity in certain industries — interfax
Coverage (14 sources)
- Central Bank worsened inflation forecast for 2026 — Фонтанка
- Central Bank expects annual inflation in Russia at the level of 7.1–7.6% — Ведомости
- Central Bank raised inflation forecast for Russia in 2026 to 7.1-7.6% and expects return to 4% in 2027 — Интерфакс
- Central Bank of Russia disclosed annual inflation level in Russia — Вести
- Central Bank of Russia updated forecast of key macroeconomic indicators — Интерфакс
- Annual inflation in Russia will settle in the range of 7.1-7.6% by year-end, reports Central Bank. — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Central Bank narrows forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 to 0.5-1.0% — Интерфакс
- Central Bank of Russia raised oil price forecast for 2026 from $60 to $72 per barrel — Интерфакс
- Annual inflation in Russia will settle in the range of 7.1-7.6% by year-end, reports Central Bank. — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Central Bank of Russia raised forecast for average rate for 2027 and 2028 — Интерфакс
- Inflation in the Russian Federation from October 13 to 19 amounted to 0.05%, annual rate slowed to 7.15% — Интерфакс
- Weekly inflation in Russia slowed to 0.05% — Ведомости
- Central Bank: Inflation expectations of the population in October decreased to 13.2% — Ведомости
- Inflation expectations of the Russian population in October decreased from 14.2% to 13.2% — Интерфакс