Russia's Parallel Imports Forecast at $20.5B in 2026
The volume of parallel imports in 2026 could amount to $20.5 billion.
Consensus
- The volume of parallel imports in Russia for 2026 is projected to reach $20.5 billion.
- The decline in parallel import volumes is considered a natural trend.
- The decline is linked to the development of domestic production and substitution of goods from unfriendly countries with products from friendly countries.
- Parallel import mechanism has been in effect since March 2022.
- The mechanism allows import of goods without consent from rights holders.
- For January–July 2026, the volume of parallel imports was approximately $12.2 billion.
- For January–August 2026, the volume may reach $13.8 billion.
Points of divergence
- The volume of parallel imports for January–November 2025 was $20.9 billion, which is 45% lower than the same period in 2024 ($37.9 billion). — vedomosti
- The volume of parallel imports in 2025 was $23.1 billion. — kommersant
Coverage (2 sources)
- Volume of parallel imports in 2026 may amount to $20.5 billion — Ведомости
- Ministry of Industry and Trade allowed a 11% reduction in parallel imports in 2026 — Коммерсантъ