Russia Upgrades 2026 GDP Forecast, Cuts Investment Outlook
Urals price forecast increased by $1–3: from $53 per barrel in 2027 to $51 by 2029.
Consensus
- The Ministry of Economic Development updated the macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2029.
- GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 0.6%.
- GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029.
- Consumer demand is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2026.
- Inflation is projected at 6.8% by the end of 2026 and to return to 4% by the end of 2027.
- The average exchange rate for the dollar in 2026 is estimated at 79.5 rubles.
- The ruble is expected to gradually weaken from 2027 to 2029.
- Oil prices for Brent are projected at $73 per barrel in 2027 and $66 in 2029.
- Oil prices for Urals are projected at $53 per barrel in 2027, decreasing to $51 by 2029.
- Investment recovery is expected to begin in 2027 with a 0.2% increase, accelerating to 3% by 2029.
- The forecast is described as moderately conservative.
Points of divergence
- The average dollar exchange rate for 2026 was revised to 81.5 rubles, based on a stronger ruble in Q2 and Q3, contradicting the 79.5 rubles reported in other sources. — fontanka
- The Ministry of Economic Development noted that the oil price forecast was increased from $65 in 2027 and $61 in 2029 (spring estimate) to $73 and $66, respectively, which is not explicitly stated in other sources. — kommersant
- The forecast includes specific sectors expected to grow rapidly: pharmaceuticals, machinery, aviation, electronics, tourism, IT, and agriculture. — tg_government_rus
Coverage (4 sources)
- MinEconomy expects GDP growth of 0.6% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 — Коммерсантъ
- MinEconomy raised forecast for economic growth in 2026, but worsened investment expectations — Фонтанка
- Ministry of Economic Development presented forecast of socio-economic development for 2027-2028 years — Правительство России
- Ministry of Economy presented a project of macro forecast for 2027-2029 years — Коммерсантъ