Economic activity in Russia in the second quarter of 2026 was higher…
Economic activity in Russia in the second quarter of 2026 was higher than that in the first quarter, which allows for an expectation of a transition to year-on-year GDP growth; however, sectoral heterogeneity has become even more pronounced, and the economy has encountered a negative supply shock.
Consensus
- The Bank of Russia has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6%.
- Inflation expectations for 2026 have been revised upward to 6.2%, with a target level expected only by 2028–2029.
- Key interest rate forecasts remain elevated, with an average of 14.5% in 2026 and projected declines through 2029.
- The Russian economy showed signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter.
- Consumer and government demand are key drivers of economic activity.
- Supply-side disruptions, including unplanned refinery maintenance, have affected oil production and transportation.
Points of divergence
- Russia is experiencing a near-stagflationary situation where some goods do not respond to changes in the central bank's key rate due to market rigidity and monopolistic practices, while others remain price-stable due to weak demand. — vesti
- The Bank of Russia noted a 'small dip' in paid services consumption in May, attributed to reduced availability of familiar tourist destinations, which may be temporary. — interfax
- The median long-term growth rate for the Russian economy remains unchanged at 1.7%. — vedomosti
Coverage (3 sources)
- Economists See Russia Facing Near-Stagflation Situation — Вести
- Central Bank of Russia analysts note resumption of economic growth in Q2 — Интерфакс
- Central Bank: Forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 reduced to 0.6% — Ведомости