Russia's key rate expected to fall gradually

Aksakov forecasted an increase in the probability of a key rate cut.

Consensus

The key interest rate in Russia is expected to continue decreasing gradually.
Declining inflation is cited as a reason for potential rate cuts.
The next meeting of the Central Bank's board is scheduled for September 11.
Several officials and financial leaders expressed optimism about further rate reductions.
The current key rate is 14% annually.

Anatoly Akhakov believes the Central Bank will not interrupt the annual cycle of monetary easing on September 11. — vesti
Vasily Koltashov, economist from the Institute of New Society, states that a stable ruble exchange rate is a necessary condition for rate cuts, but the ruble has depreciated by over 20% since the start of summer 2026. — vesti
Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak expects the key rate to continue falling, citing inflation at around 6.3% as of August 31, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. — interfax
Andrey Kostin of VTB believes the key rate will no longer rise and will steadily decrease, though he would prefer more aggressive action from the Central Bank. — m24
Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin stated that opportunities for further rate cuts have diminished, and the Central Bank will act based on the goal of returning inflation to 4% by 2027. — m24