Sberbank Analysts See 7% Chance of Russia's Victory in Ukraine War
Analysts from Sberbank assessed the probability of Russia's military victory in the war against Ukraine at 7%, with the most likely scenario being a 'Trump deal' that would freeze the conflict with partial sanctions relief. The leaked internal document, published by hacker group Black Mirror, outlines eight possible outcomes, including a 12% chance of a 'West exhaustion' scenario and a 22% chance of a 'Korean-style freeze'.
Consensus
- The Sberbank document was dated April 2026.
- The document was published by the hacker group Black Mirror.
- The document outlines eight scenarios for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.
- The probability of Russia achieving a decisive military advantage is assessed at 7%.
- The probability of a 'West exhaustion' scenario (peace on Russia's terms) is 12%.
- The probability of a 'Korean-style freeze' (conflict without formal agreement) is 22%.
- The probability of a prolonged war lasting another 2–3 years is 15%.
- The probability of peace on Ukraine's or Europe's terms is 2%.
- The probability of a compromise peace deal is 5%.
- The document mentions the need for Russia to mobilize 300–500 thousand additional troops for a military victory.
- Russia faces challenges in air defense, production of bombs, and workforce shortages in the defense industry.
- Russia's monthly military losses are estimated at 20–25 thousand personnel.
Points of divergence
- The document is titled 'Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict'. — tg_govorit_nemoskva
- The document was published under the title 'Analysts of Sberbank assessed the probability of Russia’s military victory at 7%, and peace on Russia’s terms at 12%'. — tg_sotavisionmedia
- The document is described as a closed report, and the Sberbank analysts estimated the probability of Russia achieving decisive military advantage by spring 2028. — tg_currenttime
- The document was prepared before the escalation of Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and logistics facilities. — meduza
- The document was sent by Sberbank's chairman, German Gref, to experts and officials. — tg_idelrealii
- The document was sent by Sberbank’s chairman, German Gref, to experts and government officials. — tg_sibrealii
- The document includes a 5% probability for 'wild card' or 'black swan' events such as a nuclear strike, nuclear facility accident, or targeted attack on a nuclear site, or a change of power in Russia. — tg_tvrain
- The document includes a 5% probability for the 'wild card' or 'black swan' scenario. — tvrain
Coverage (12 sources)
- Sberbank analysts assessed the probability of Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine at 7% — Говорит НеМосква
- Sber analysts assessed Russia's military victory probability at 7%, peace on Russian terms at 12%. Hacker group... — SOTAvision
- Probability: 7%: Sberbank analysts assessed Russia's chance of winning the war with Ukraine in a closed report — Настоящее Время
- Hackers published April Sberbank document with possible war end scenarios. Analysts believe most in 'Trump deal'. Russia's military victory probability assessed at only 7% — Meduza
- Sber analysts assess Russia's chance of victory over Ukraine at 7-12%, conflict freeze at 22-32% — Idel.Реалии
- Sber analysts assess Russia's chance of victory over Ukraine at 7-12%, conflict freeze at 22-32% — Сибирь.Реалии
- Probability of Russia's victory in war against Ukraine assessed by Sberbank analysts at 7% — Дождь (Telegram)
- Probability of Russia's victory in war with Ukraine, Sberbank analysts assessed at 7% — Дождь
- Sber analysts assess Russia's chance of victory over Ukraine at 7-12%, conflict freeze at 22-32% — Север.Реалии
- Black Mirror: Sber analysts assessed Russia's chances of military victory over Ukraine at 7%, and the possibility of peace on Russian terms at 12% — Новая газета Европа
- Sber analysts assessed Russia's military victory probability at 7%, and peace on Russian terms at 12% — SOTAvision
- Sberbank analysts assessed the probability of Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine at 7% — The Insider
Key entities
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Sberbank
- Black Mirror
- Sber
- Gerald Greff
- Russia-Ukraine
- Donald Trump
- The Insider
- Ukrainian Armed Forces
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