Sberbank Expects Pause in Rate Cuts
Lending rates in Russia are rising despite a cut in the key rate, as banks need to compensate for the increase in deposit rates, explained Mikhail Belyaev, an analyst on Russian economic trends.
Consensus
- Sberbank anticipates a pause in the reduction of the key interest rate by the Central Bank of Russia at its 11 September meeting.
- The forecast for the key rate has been revised to 13.5% by the end of 2026.
- Sberbank expects the key rate to reach 11–12% by the end of 2027.
- Increased volatility due to oil market conditions and rising fuel prices is influencing the bank's outlook.
- The Central Bank of Russia is scheduled to hold a board meeting on 11 September.
Points of divergence
- Sberbank's forecast implies that even with inflation at 4–5%, the tightness of monetary policy will remain high and continue to suppress investment and consumer demand. — vesti
- The volume of cash in the Russian economy continues to grow, suggesting potential need for central bank support measures. — vesti
- Loan interest rates in Russia are rising despite falling key rates, due to higher deposit rates banks are offering to retain customers. — vesti
- Analyst Mikhail Belyaev attributes rising loan rates to banks compensating for increased deposit rates. — vesti
Coverage (2 sources)
- Sberbank allowed a pause in the reduction of the key rate — Коммерсантъ
- In Sberbank, pause in the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was allowed — Вести