Russian banks are experiencing a structural liquidity deficit in the…
Russian banks are experiencing a structural liquidity deficit in the second half of 2025, primarily due to increased business demand for cash, which has led to higher money market rates and concerns about bank margins. The Central Bank of Russia stated this shift is expected and normal, while Sberbank confirmed observing the deficit and warned it may persist.
Consensus
- The Russian banking sector is experiencing a structural liquidity deficit starting in the second half of 2025.
- This situation is linked to increased business demand for cash transactions.
- Money market rates have risen above the key interest rate, which is unusual compared to previous periods when they were consistently below it.
- The Central Bank of Russia considers this development expected and part of a normal cycle in monetary policy operations.
- Sberbank's financial director, Taras Skvortsov, confirmed observing the liquidity deficit and stated it may continue into the future.
Points of divergence
- The current situation with money market rates above the key rate is not typical and has not occurred for over a year, marking a significant departure from recent history. — interfax
- Sberbank's financial director noted that the increase in cash turnover reached 600 billion rubles in July alone, which was both a record monthly figure and historically the highest for any July. — interfax
- The liquidity deficit is described as 'not entirely typical' by Sberbank's financial director. — vesti
- Sberbank’s financial director emphasized that the current situation poses a major challenge for the entire system and called for support from the Central Bank to prevent prolonged high money market rates. — interfax
- The volume of cash transactions in July increased by 600 billion rubles, which is described as a record monthly figure and the highest ever recorded for July. — vesti
Coverage (4 sources)
- Central Bank calls return of liquidity deficit in banking sector expected — Ведомости
- Сбер допустил сохранение дефицита ликвидности на российском рынке — Ведомости
- Сбер фиксирует дефицит ликвидности в секторе в условиях спроса бизнеса на наличность — Интерфакс
- Sber reports on liquidity shortage in Russian markets — Вести