Russian grain prices hit 2024 low after Novorossiysk terminal shutdown
Russian wheat and barley prices dropped sharply due to the shutdown of grain terminals in Novorossiysk, with domestic wheat reaching its lowest level since May 2024. Global wheat prices from the EU, Canada, and the US rose as supply from Russia decreased.
Consensus
- The prices of wheat and barley in Russia declined significantly over the week of August 10–16, 2024.
- The decline in prices coincided with the shutdown of three grain terminals in Novorossiysk.
- Wheat prices in Russia reached their lowest level since May 2024.
- The cost of fourth-class wheat in Russia fell by 3.1% over the week and by 24% year-on-year.
- The price of fourth-class wheat in Russia dropped to $224 per ton on the global market.
- Wheat prices in the EU, Canada, and the US increased by 7–11% during the same period.
- The USDA reduced its forecast for Russian grain exports in the 2026/27 season from 47.5 million to 46 million tons.
- The shutdown of terminals in Novorossiysk followed a drone attack on August 12.
- The port of Taman was previously damaged, and shipping on the Azov-Don Canal was halted.
Points of divergence
- Two of the largest terminals in Novorossiysk with a combined annual capacity of 15.6 million tons ceased operations after the drone attack on August 12. — tg_theinsider
- Prices for wheat and barley were not set in ports during the week due to lack of purchases. — kommersant
- Farmers are delaying grain sales due to dissatisfaction with current prices. — kommersant
- The full capacity of the three terminals in Novorossiysk is not specified. — kommersant
Coverage (2 sources)
- After the shutdown of terminals in Novorossiysk, Russian grain prices dropped to a minimum since May 2024 — The Insider
- Prices for wheat and barley in Russia lost 2–5.6% over the week — Коммерсантъ