Central Bank Forecasts More Predictable Fuel Market by October
The Central Bank expects the fuel market situation to become more predictable by the October policy meeting, citing seasonal demand and ongoing drone attacks on logistics infrastructure as complicating factors.
Consensus
- The Central Bank expects the fuel market situation to be more predictable by October.
- The fuel market situation is currently complicated by drone attacks on logistics infrastructure.
- Seasonal demand is contributing to higher gasoline prices.
- The Central Bank is monitoring consumer demand and market responses.
- The government has taken measures to stabilize the fuel market, including suspending fuel exports and introducing a tax incentive for imports and domestic production.
Points of divergence
- The full impact of fuel price increases on inflation, including secondary effects, will only be fully assessable in 2027. — kommersant
- There is no reliable comprehensive picture of the scale of the shock caused by drone attacks on fuel infrastructure. — kommersant
- Fuel supply disruptions began in late May due to increased attacks by Ukrainian forces on oil refineries. — kommersant
- Fuel rationing at gas stations in regions has been introduced. — kommersant
- Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiyulina stated in late July that the fuel market situation was gradually normalizing. — kommersant
Coverage (2 sources)
- Central Bank expects more predictable situation in fuel market by October — Коммерсантъ
- Central Bank expects fuel market situation to become more predictable by regulator meeting on key rate in October... — ТАСС (Telegram)