The Central Bank of Russia is set to update its forecast for the key… (ставка · прогноз · ключевой)
The Central Bank of Russia is set to update its forecast for the key interest rate trajectory in July. The forecast for the average trajectory of the key interest rate may be revised in July, more likely in the direction of an increase than a decrease.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 14.25% annually on June 19
- The decision was the ninth consecutive reduction in key rate
- The bank considered three scenarios for the key rate change: maintaining the rate, reducing by 25 basis points, or reducing by 50 basis points
- The CBR Governor Elvira Nabiyullina stated that the forecast for the trajectory of the key rate may be revised upward rather than downward
- The decision was made at a board meeting on June 19
Points of divergence
- The updated forecast will mainly affect plans for 2026-2027 years — kommersant
- The April forecast did not assume a key rate below 10% — vedomosti
Coverage (2 sources)
- Russia's Central Bank to Update July Forecast on Key Rate Trajectory — Коммерсантъ
- Nabiullina Allowed Increase in Forecast for Central Bank Rate Trajectory — Ведомости