Also, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 6-7%

Also, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 6-7%, up from 4.5-5.5%, and lowered its GDP growth forecast for the year from 0.5-1.5% to 0.0-1.0%.

Consensus

The Central Bank of Russia revised down its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 to a range of 0–1% from the previous 0.5–1.5%
The Central Bank increased its inflation forecast for 2026 to 6–7%, up from 4.5–5.5%
Sberbank revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to between 0–0.5%
Sberbank reduced its credit growth forecast for individuals to 5–8% from 9–11%
Inflation forecasts were raised by both Sberbank and the Central Bank, with a range of 6–6.5% or higher

Points of divergence

Sberbank increased its inflation forecast to 6.5–7%, which is higher than the 6–6.5% stated in other sources — vedomosti
The Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by 25 b.p. to 14%, a detail not mentioned in other sources — interfax
Sberbank is considering increasing reserves for potential losses related to online retailers affected by Ukrainian attacks on Wildberries, and approximately 300 companies are seeking loan restructuring — tg_echoonline_news

Coverage (7 sources)

Sberbank on backdrop of strikes against Wildberries worsened forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and credit to individuals — ЭХО / Новости
Сбербанк ухудшил прогноз по инфляции и ВВП на конец 2026 года — Ведомости
«Сбер» понизил прогноз роста ВВП на 2026 год до 0–0,5% — Ведомости
Central Bank of Russia and analysts update their outlook for the second half of 2026 — Коммерсантъ
What happened in a day: Friday, July 24 — Интерфакс
Central Bank lowers forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 from 0.5-1.5% to 0.0-1.0% — Интерфакс
Central Bank of Russia lowers oil price forecast for 2026 from $65 to $60 per barrel — Интерфакс

Also, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 6-7%

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (7 sources)

Key entities

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