Central Bank Targets 4% Inflation by 2027 Amid Pro-Inflation Risks

Which scenario is the most likely? The Central Bank itself considers the basic scenario for economic development to be the most likely.

Consensus

The Central Bank of Russia aims to return inflation to the 4% annual target by 2027.
The bank has published its 2027–2019 monetary policy framework, including a baseline and three alternative scenarios.
The baseline scenario is considered more likely than any individual alternative scenario.
Inflation is projected to be 6–7% in 2026 and 4.5–5.5% in 2027 under the pro-inflationary scenario.
Key interest rates are expected to remain high in 2027, ranging from 13–15% under the pro-inflationary scenario.
The bank will respond to external shocks and maintain its monetary policy principles.
The document was published on August 31 and is subject to review and discussion.

The de-escalation scenario allows for faster economic growth without inflationary pressure due to higher labor productivity and AI adoption, with interest rates expected to fall to 9–11% in 2027 and 7–8% in 2029. — fontanka
The Central Bank considers a global financial crisis caused by overvaluation of AI assets as a possible risk that could impact the Russian economy, comparable to the 2007–2008 crisis. — kommersant
The pro-inflationary scenario is considered the most likely among alternatives, with inflation reaching 4.5–5.5% by 2027 and key rates at 13–15%. — vedomosti
The Central Bank forecasts key rates at 14.5–14.6% in 2026 under the pro-inflationary scenario, which differs from the 13–15% range cited in other sources for 2027. — vesti