Russia's GDP Grows 0.6% in H1 2026, Cash Use Rises
Russia's GDP grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, aligning with the Central Bank's forecast, while cash in circulation rose significantly due to economic growth, declining deposit rates, and concerns over payment system reliability. Federal budget revenues exceeded projections, surpassing 18.64 trillion rubles with over 80% from non-oil and gas sources.
Consensus
- Russia's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- The Central Bank of Russia stated that the GDP growth aligns with its 2026 forecast of 0–1% annual growth.
- Cash in circulation in Russia increased significantly in 2026, with a 18.4% rise year-on-year by July 1.
- The Central Bank described the increase in cash as a natural process linked to economic growth and reduced deposit attractiveness.
- The share of cash in the total money supply is around 15%, down from 20% in 2021, but the recent rise does not contradict the long-term downward trend.
- Federal budget revenues exceeded 18.64 trillion rubles by August 27, 2026.
- Non-oil and gas revenues made up over 80% of total budget income.
- The nominal GDP of Russia in the first half of 2026 was approximately 102 trillion rubles.
- The Central Bank emphasized that the increase in cash is not unprecedented and is influenced by seasonal factors, internet outages, and economic uncertainty.
Points of divergence
- The growth in the first half of 2026 is due to the neutralization of calendar effects between Q1 and Q2, which individually were distorted by working day differences compared to 2025. — interfax
- The Central Bank explicitly linked the rise in cash to mobile internet outages and cited tax changes, seasonal spending, and declining deposit rates as contributing factors. — kommersant
- The volume of cash in circulation increased by 643.4 billion rubles in July 2026 alone, a 43% rise, and by 1.9 trillion rubles in the first five months of 2026. — vedomosti
- Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated that budget revenues exceeded the forecast and attributed the shift to non-oil/gas sources to economic diversification and high-value industries. — vesti
Coverage (8 sources)
- Growth of Russian GDP in first half of year by 0.6% agrees with Central Bank forecast for year — Интерфакс
- Central Bank called increase in cash volume for Russians natural — Коммерсантъ
- Central Bank: the volume of cash in circulation will grow — Ведомости
- Russian Post reduced net losses by more than 14 billion rubles — Коммерсантъ
- Money base in Russia grew by 52.6 billion rubles from August 14 to 21 — Интерфакс
- Russian budget revenues are growing — Вести
- Receipts from the sale of state property in the 2026 budget of the Russian Federation may amount to 331 billion rubles. — Интерфакс
- Budget revenues from Rosimushchestvo may reach 600 billion rubles — Вести
Key entities
- Russia
- Moscow
- CB
- Bank of Russia
- Russian State Property Fund
- INTERFAX.RU
- Mikhail Mishustin
- Vadim Yakovenko
- Russian Post
- Alexey Zabolotkin
More on Mikhail Mishustin
- Russia Allows Post of Russia to Use Weapons Against Drones
- Mishustin gave port infrastructure to Kovalchuk and Sechin's allies
- Leaders Celebrate Day of Knowledge on 1 September