In July 2026, inflation in Russia accelerated to 5.84% year-on-year
In July 2026, inflation in Russia accelerated to 5.84% year-on-year, driven by rising fuel prices and a sharp increase in public inflation expectations to 14.7%, prompting the Central Bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6–7%. The Bank also adjusted its economic outlook, including lowering GDP growth projections for 2026.
Consensus
- Inflation in Russia reached 5.84% year-on-year by 20 July 2026.
- The Central Bank of Russia revised its inflation forecast for 2026 upward to 6–7%.
- Rising fuel prices were a key factor driving inflation and influencing public expectations.
- Inflationary expectations among Russians increased sharply in July, reaching 14.7%.
- A meeting on the key interest rate was scheduled for 24 July 2026.
Points of divergence
- The Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 6–7% due to fuel price increases, with the previous estimate being 4.5–5.5%. — vesti
- The Central Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to between 0-1%, and projected inflation would reach target levels in 2027 and beyond. — tg_tass_agency
- Inflation was reported at 5.84% on 20 July, up from 5.62% the previous week, based on data from the Ministry of Economic Development. — kommersant
- Year-on-year inflation reached 5.84% by 20 July and accelerated to 6.27% when calculated using daily data for July 2025, due to differences in methodology related to utility tariff indexing. — interfax
- Inflation expectations rose from 12.4% to 14.7% between June and July, driven by fuel market disruptions and rising prices on the fuel market. — fontanka
- The jump in inflation expectations was attributed to a 'fuel crisis' caused by attacks on refineries and logistics failures, with the increase being one of the most rapid in history. — thebell
- 14 out of 20 analysts surveyed expected the Central Bank to hold the key rate at 14.25% during its 24 July meeting, while five anticipated a reduction. — vedomosti
Coverage (20 sources)
- Central Bank raises inflation forecast for 2026 to 6-7% due to fuel price increases — Вести
- Key rate cut to 14% p.a. Main points from Central Bank of Russia statements: — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Central Bank of Russia: Annual inflation as of July 20 stood at 5.9% — Вести
- Central Bank says annual inflation in Russia will be 6-7% in 2026 due to significant rise in fuel prices — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 5.84% — Коммерсантъ
- Annual inflation in Russia amounted to less than 6% — Вести
- Inflation in Russia from July 14 to 20 was 0.17%, annual rate rose to 5.84% — Интерфакс
- Central Bank of Russia Survey: Russians Expect Price Increases at Nearly 15% Level — Вести
- Russian inflation expectations surged sharply amid fuel restrictions — Фонтанка
- Russian inflation expectations jump to 14.7%, highest since the start of the war — The Bell
- Russian inflation expectations rose to 14.7% in July — Ведомости
- Russian inflation expectations in July exceeded 14% — Коммерсантъ
- Russian inflation expectations jumped to multi-year highs in July — Интерфакс
- Central Bank reports sharp rise in Russian inflation expectations in July — Москва 24
- Money supply in Russia grew by 0.9% in June; annual rate increased to 13.2% — Интерфакс
- Broad money base of Russia grew by 2% in June — Интерфакс
- Central Bank: Russia's trade surplus in May grew by 52% — Ведомости
- Annual inflation in Russia in June 2026 reached 6.02%, up from 5.31% in May — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Money supply in Russia grew by 225.5 billion rubles from June 26 to July 3 — Интерфакс
- Central Bank notes significant growth in Russian spot foreign exchange market turnover in June — Интерфакс