Russia's GDP Grew 0.6% in First Half of 2026
On July 15, the Central Bank of Russia lowered its forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 to 0.6%.
Consensus
- Russia's GDP increased by 0.6% in the first six months of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025.
- The growth rate in the first half of 2026 was lower than the 1.2% growth recorded in the same period of 2025.
- The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) provided the preliminary GDP estimate for the first half of 2026.
- The Ministry of Economic Development expects the 2026 GDP growth to be around 0.6%.
- The Central Bank of Russia revised its 2026 GDP forecast downward to 0.0–1.0%.
- The growth in the second quarter of 2026 is estimated at 1.3% year-on-year.
Points of divergence
- The GDP growth for the first seven months of 2026 was 0.6%, with a 0.6% increase in July after a 1.7% rise in June. — kommersant
- The index of industrial production grew by 0.4% in July, and the growth in investment in fixed capital was negative at -9.9% for January–July. — kommersant
- The volume of construction work fell by 3.9% over the first seven months of 2026. — kommersant
- The Ministry of Economic Development reduced its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.4% from 1.3% in September 2025. — interfax
- The Central Bank revised its 2026 forecast to 0.0–1.0%, down from 0.5–1.5% in April. — interfax
- Analysts surveyed by Interfax in early August predicted a 0.5% GDP increase for 2026, down from 0.7% a month earlier. — interfax
- Maxim Reshetnikov stated that the cooling of the Russian economy is natural after a period of rapid growth. — vedomosti
- Reshetnikov emphasized the need for structural reforms to strengthen economic potential for 2027–2029. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank lowered its 2026–2027 GDP forecast to 0.6% on 15 July. — vedomosti
- Experts from the VEB Institute forecasted a 0.8% GDP increase for 2026 on 25 February. — vedomosti
Coverage (7 sources)
- GDP grew by 0.6% in the first half of the year — Вести
- Russia's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first seven months of the year — Коммерсантъ
- Rosstat reported growth of Russian Federation GDP in first half by 0.6% — Интерфакс
- Analysts in Central Bank survey lower Russia GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, raise inflation forecast to 6.6% — Интерфакс
- Reshetnikov forecasted growth of Russia's GDP at the level of 0.6% — Ведомости
- Ministry of Economic Development expects Russian GDP growth in 2026 at the level of 0.6% — Интерфакс
- Growth of the Russian economy in the third quarter may slow down due to temporary loss of capacity — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Russia
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Rosstat
- Ministry of Economic Development
- CB
- Maxim Reshetnikov
- Bank of Russia
- IT 'News'
- Ministry of Economic Development
- IS 'Vesti'
- Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat)
- Federal State Statistics Service