Central Bank lowers dollar rate to 83.62 rubles

Official exchange rates for the three main currencies on October 16 are: dollar – 83.76 rubles, euro – 93.77 rubles, yuan – 12.5 rubles.

Consensus

The Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate at 83.62 rubles on October, 17.
The official dollar rate decreased by 0.14 rubles compared to the previous day.
The euro and yuan exchange rates remained nearly unchanged.
The ruble strengthened against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Oil prices and export prospects were cited as factors supporting the ruble.
Inflation data from September showed 0.35% inflation, following a 0.08% deflation in August.
Business inflation expectations for the next three months decreased slightly to 6.4% in October from 6.6% in September.
Analysts revised upward their forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%.
Analysts also increased their forecast for inflation in 2026 to 7.1% from 6.6%.

The Bank of Russia reduced the official dollar rate by 0.14 rubles on October 17. — vedomosti
The Bank of Russia increased the official dollar rate by 8.22 kopecks to 83.9497 rubles on October 15. — interfax
The Bank of Russia changed the method of calculating the official euro rate starting June 8, basing it on the dollar-to-ruble and euro-to-dollar rates. — interfax
Analysts forecast the dollar will be at 85.3 rubles in October–December 2026, rising to 89.4 rubles in 2027 and 94.8 rubles in 2028. — vedomosti
Analysts increased their forecast for Russia's 2026 GDP growth to 0.6% and inflation to 7.1%. — interfax
The CFO of Sberbank stated that the ruble will remain at its current level in 2026 and weaken slightly in 2027. — vedomosti
The ruble's strength was supported by the 'diesel deal' and reduced likelihood of a key rate cut in October. — interfax