United Russia's real vote share: 34% without fraud
The actual result of the United Russia party in the elections is approximately 34%. If this result is cleaned of falsifications, it is 1.7 times less than the official result of the ruling party at 57.8% of votes.
Consensus
- The real vote share for United Russia in the State Duma elections, without fraud, is estimated at around 34%.
- This figure is approximately 1.7 times lower than the official result of 57.8%.
- The analysis was conducted using the method of electoral analyst Sergey Shpilkin.
- The method identifies 'honest core' districts with normal turnout and results, distinguishing them from anomalous ones with high turnout and inflated results.
- The 'honest core' of voting districts is located at around 34% for United Russia.
- Two electoral analysts agreed with the findings of 'Novaya Gazeta Evropa'.
- The method is based on the correlation between turnout and vote share, and assumes that votes for other parties were counted correctly.
- Moscow and several regions were excluded from the analysis due to concerns about mass vote transfers or high use of electronic voting.
Points of divergence
- Up to 18.4 million out of 30 million 'paper' votes for United Russia may have been falsified. — tg_astrapress
- Two voter groups were identified: budget sector workers voting on Friday via electronic voting, and private sector workers voting on Sunday, favoring 'New People' and CPRF. — tg_doxajournal
- Reports of ballot stuffing, beatings, and arrests during voting were ongoing, including incidents in Perm and Moscow. — tg_echoonline_news
- Moscow and several regions were excluded due to suspicions of mass vote transfers to United Russia. — tg_theinsider
- The initial plan for the election was to suppress turnout, but it changed last minute to mobilize all state sector employees. — tg_svobodnieslova
Coverage (8 sources)
- Real result of United Russia in State Duma elections does not exceed 35%, calculated by Important Stories. Up to 18.4 million out of 30... — ASTRA
- Real result of United Russia in State Duma elections does not exceed 35%, calculated by Important Stories. Up to 18.4 million out of 30... — ASTRA
- Result of 'United Russia' on Duma elections without accounting for falsifications amounted to only 34%, - 'New-Europe' 'New newspaper...' — ASTRA
- Real result of United Russia at elections is approximately 34% — DOXA
- New Europe newspaper: Without injections United Russia would have received only 34% in the State Duma elections — Meduza
- Rigging, beatings and arrests: how did United Russia achieve victory in the vote? — ЭХО / Новости
- Result of "United Russia" without statistically anomalous vote increase could have been about 34% - "New Europe Newspaper" — The Insider
- «Doubt should not be cast». Why «United Russia» achieved a record result before a possible new stage of negotiations — Вёрстка