Russia's inflation to hit 6.8% by 2026, fueled by fuel prices

The rise in prices for non-food items will be further increased by a 2.4% increase in fuel prices, adding approximately 1% to overall inflation.

Consensus

Russia's inflation is projected to reach 6.6% by the end of 2025.
The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts inflation of 6.8% by the end of December 2026.
The price of fuel is expected to increase by 2.4 percentage points in the non-food goods category.
Without the fuel factor, the increase in non-food goods would be limited to 4.3%.
The overall consumer basket is expected to rise by 6.8% by December 2026.
Inflation accelerated in August, with a year-on-year rate of 6.33%.
The price of fuel rose by 24.6% compared to the same period in the previous year.
The price of fuel increased by 6.5% in July alone.
The Ministry of Economic Development's forecast is based on the socio-economic development plan for 2027–2029.
The Bank of Russia expects inflation to remain in the range of 6–7% for the year.
The price of non-food goods is expected to rise by 6.7% over the year.
The price of food is expected to rise by 5.1% over the year.

The price of fuel is rising due to unplanned refinery shutdowns caused by drone attacks. — gazeta_spb
The price of utilities (ЖКХ) is expected to rise by 11.4% in 2026, 11% in 2027, and 8.6% in 2028. — tg_govorit_nemoskva
The direct contribution of fuel to overall inflation is estimated at 0.7–0.9 percentage points by different analysts. — fontanka