Putin's economy has stalled on its military engine
Putin's economy has stalled on its military engine: the government reported a fourfold slowdown in Russia's GDP. The Russian economy concluded the first half of 2026 with a 0.3% growth, according to the Ministry of Economic Development.
Consensus
- Russia's economy grew by 0.3% during the first half of 2026 according to the Ministry of Economic Development.
- The rate of economic growth in Russia has slowed significantly compared to previous periods, with a fourfold decrease from the same period in 2025.
- President Putin stated that Russia's economic growth outpaces that of the European Union and emphasized macroeconomic stability.
- Inflation risks were acknowledged by President Putin, who warned against accelerating growth due to potential price increases.
Points of divergence
- The Ministry of Economic Development reported that the economy contracted in the first quarter (-0.2%) and stagnated in April–May, contributing to the overall slowdown despite a 1.1% growth in June. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- Military production slowed: output of 'finished metal products' (including bombs and shells) grew by 8.8%, down from 18% the previous year; electronics production rose 4.3%, compared to 11.7% previously. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- Civilian sectors are entering recession: clothing output fell by 6.3%, metallurgy lost 9.1% of production, and petroleum product output dropped 21.7% in June and 7.7% over the half-year due to strikes on oil refineries. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- A series of attacks on Wildberries warehouses may lead to widespread financial consequences, including bankruptcies among sellers and defaults on loans and taxes. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- The Central Bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7% due to a significant increase in fuel prices. — fontanka
Coverage (2 sources)
- Putin's economy sputters on military engine: government reports fourfold slowdown in Russian GDP — The Moscow Times
- Putin: In terms of economic growth rates compared to the EU, we are also ahead — Фонтанка