The space for further cuts to the key rate of the Central Bank of… (ставка · снижение · политика)
The space for further cuts to the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia remains. 'From my point of view, the Central Bank of Russia is delaying rate cuts, but this is a characteristic feature of Nabullov's policy; she always delays the start of the cycle of rate cuts or increases,' he stated.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%.
- This was the ninth consecutive rate cut since last year.
- The decision was announced on June 19, 2024.
- Market reactions included a rise in the Moscow Exchange index.
Points of divergence
- The Ministry of Economic Development stated that the space for further rate cuts remains, and current economic dynamics support continued easing of monetary conditions. — vedomosti
- Economists from Forbes, Finam, and RBK expected a more significant rate cut to 14%, while some analysts warned of potential risks from budgetary policy. — novaya_eu
- Some experts believe the current rate is still too high relative to inflation, with low demand for credit from both consumers and corporations. — novaya_eu
- Economist Dmitry Nekrasov argued that corporate credit volumes have continued to grow, contradicting the view of economic cooling. — novaya_eu
- Economist Sergei Alekshenko stated that credit conditions have tightened again after a period of improvement. — novaya_eu
- Economist Denis Morokhin noted a 1.9% increase in corporate credit volumes in April compared to March. — novaya_eu
- Putin reportedly supported further rate cuts during a meeting with government members on June 11. — novaya_eu
Coverage (3 sources)
- Ministry of Economic Development announces potential for further reduction of key rate — Ведомости
- MOEX Index fell after central bank's rate decision — Ведомости
- Central Bank lowers key rate again — to 14.25%. What does this say about the Russian economy? — Новая газета Европа